Will the hurricane hit me?

The cone is not the storm

The famous forecast "cone of uncertainty" shows the likely path of the storm's center — and historically the center stays inside it only about two-thirds of the time. It says nothing about how big the storm is or where the impacts land. Damaging wind, heavy rain, and storm surge routinely reach well outside the cone.

So don't fixate on the thin line down the middle, and don't relax just because that line isn't pointed exactly at your town. Look at the impact maps — wind, surge, and rainfall — not just the track.

• Hurricane Watch — hurricane conditions are possible within about 48 hours. Start preparing now.
• Hurricane Warning — hurricane conditions are expected within about 36 hours. Finish preparations and follow evacuation orders.
• Storm-surge watch/warning — issued separately for life-threatening coastal flooding. Take these as seriously as the wind alerts.

The Saffir-Simpson category measures wind speed only. But most hurricane deaths come from water: storm surge along the coast and inland flooding from rainfall, sometimes hundreds of miles from where the eye came ashore. A slow, "lower-category" storm that dumps two feet of rain can be far deadlier than a brief, higher-category landfall.

The scale only climbs with wind. Bottom line: a Category 1 over your area can still flood your home. Judge the threat by surge + rain, not the headline number.

• Know your evacuation zone (surge) and whether you're in a flood zone (rain). Look both up by address now, not during a warning.
• Read the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center and your local National Weather Service office — they translate the storm into local impacts.
• Turn on local alerts and Wireless Emergency Alerts so an order reaches you even if you're asleep.
• Watch the trend, not one map. A single model run or a 5-day cone isn't a decision — the consensus over several updates is.

Don't wait for certainty — the cone only narrows in the last day or two, and by then supplies are gone and roads are full. Prepare on a watch, act on a warning, and if officials order an evacuation for your zone, go. It's far better to leave for a storm that turns than to ride out one that doesn't.

What is the cone of uncertainty?

It's the probable track of the storm's center — not its size, and impacts reach well beyond it. Full explainer: the hurricane cone of uncertainty.

Does the category tell me how dangerous it is?

Only the wind. Water — surge and rain — causes most deaths, so a lower-category storm can be worse for flooding. More: hurricane categories explained.

How far ahead should I act?

Prepare on a watch (~48h out), finalize or evacuate on a warning (~36h) or when local officials order it.